ABSTRACT
Healthy People 2030 aims to decrease low-risk cesarean delivery rates to 23.6% in the United States. In 2023, the national rate was 26.6%, though rates vary widely by state and hospital. This suggests a need for localized geographic estimates to identify places with higher burden. We modeled 2023 low-risk cesarean delivery rates by county of birth using birth certificate data and hierarchical Bayesian models that spatially smooth unstable estimates. We found considerable variation in rates, with county rates ranging from 5.8% to 53.4%. Counties in the West had lower rates than those in the Midwest, South, and Northeast. County rates increased with urbanicity. Only 47.7% (985) of counties had rates meeting the Healthy People 2030 target.